Bleakforecastspelledoutforreturntobrighterdaysofliberalization

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ProtectionistUStradepolicyinrecentyearshasproducedabiggertradedeficitandjoblosses,weakenedthecountry"sproductivityandhasdiminisheditsdiplomaticleadership,tradeexpertssay.

"Theprotectionistpolicy,justduringthe(Donald)Trumpadministration,addedoveronehundredbilliondollarstotheUStradedeficit,"saidJackMidgley,principaloftheglobalconsultancyMidgley&CoandanadjunctassociateprofessorintheSecurityStudiesProgramatGeorgetownUniversity,Washington.

"That"sanimmediateadverseimpact.Thejoblossesassociatedwiththatimpactareinthehundredsofthousandsofmanufacturingjobs.Sothat"sanothernegativeimpactontheUSeconomy.So,itturnsoutemployment,tradedeficit,investmentinmanufacturing,infrastructure,andsoforth,allextremelynegative."

GaryClydeHufbauer,aseniorfellowatthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomicsinWashington,said:"ThistrendhasadecidedlynegativeimpactonUSproductivitygrowth,nowlessthan0.5percentannually.Inthegoodolddaysitwasnearly2percentannually.AndUSdiplomaticleadershipisbadlyweakenedbythecurrenttrend."

Inapolicybrieftitled"HavetradeagreementsbeenbadforAmerica?"publishedlastmonth,HufbauerandAlanWolff,anotherseniorfellowatthePetersonInstitute,said"expandedtradehasgreatlybenefitedtheUSeconomy"andthat"protectionismisnotthesolution".

Accordingtothebrief,globaltradeandliberalizationhavehelpedlifthundredsofmillionsofpeopleoutofpovertyworldwideandhelpedraiseUSGDPtenfoldsinceWorldWarII,butprotectionismunderpresidentDonaldTrumpandhissuccessorPresidentJoeBidenunderminedUSauthorityglobally.

"US-ChinatradehasbeenverybeneficialfortheUSoverthepasttwodecades,"Hufbauersaid."IamverysorrythisisnotrecognizedbymostUSpoliticalleaders."

"Standstill"expected

Hufbauersaidheexpects"astandstill"inUS-Chinatraderelationsoverthenexttwoyears."Notgetmuchworse,butnotgetmuchbetter,either."

HufbauerforecastedthatRepublicansintheUSCongresswouldcontinuetocallfornewinternationaltradeagreements,andvoicedskepticismthatBidenortheUSTradeRepresentativeKatherineTaiwouldrespond.

Instead,theywillcontinuetonegotiatethe"Indo-Pacific"economicframework,theinitiativeontradewithTaiwan,andtrytocalmtheelectricvehicledisputewiththeEuropeanUnion,headded.

Hufbauersaidhelackedoptimismaboutany"bigmove"bytheUSininternationaltrade.Heforecast"areversalbyBiden"toseekUSadmissiontotheComprehensiveandProgressiveAgreementforTrans-PacificPartnership.

"Igivethisonlya25percentchance.AnotherbigmovewouldbeafreetradeagreementwiththeUK.Again,onlya25percentchance."

TheUSwouldcontinuetoimposestrictsanctionsonRussia,Hufbauersaid.

MidgleyforecastedtherewouldbenobigUSmovesinadvancingtradethisyear.Reasonsincludethemacroeconomicenvironmentandthedomesticpoliticalregime,hesaid.

"Idon"tbelievetherewillbeanybigmovesin2023.…Unfortunately,notmuchroominthatenvironmentfornewfreetradeagreements.AndsimilarfactorswillmakeitdifficulttomakeprogressonUS-Chinatradeinoneortwoyears.

"Andtheprospectofarecessionnextyear,plusthepoliticalenvironment,whichisaRepublicanCongress.Ithinkit"sveryunlikelythatinthenext12to24months…Idoubtverymuchthattherewillbeadvances…intheareaoffreetradewithChina."

Themostimportantreasonfor"nobigmove"withChinaorothertradepartnersisaUSpolicytrendthatisnotconducivetotrade,Midgleysaid.

"WhatishappeningisthattheUnitedStatesiscontinuingtoemphasizeenergyindependence,massiveincreasesindefensespendinganddefenseinvestment,andalotofthatiscrowdingoutattemptstoliberalizetradepolicy.…don"tseethepoliticalroomortheeconomicincentivefortheAmericangovernmenttodomuchintheareaoffreetrade."

PoliticalpressurefromtheUSHouseofRepresentatives,nowinRepublicanhands,willfavorprotectionism,Midgleysaid.

HeexpressedconcernthatthefirstthingtheHouseSpeakerKevinMcCarthywantstodois"runofftoTaiwanandputfingersintotheeyesoftheChinesegovernment",whichwouldhurtUS-Chinarelationsandreducethechanceofbilateralconversationontrade.

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